The Arctic is engaged in a deep climatic evolution. This evolution is quite predictable at short (year) and longer
scales (several decades), but it is the decadal intermediate scale that is the most difficult to predict. This is
because the natural variability of the system is large and dominant at this scale, and the system is highly non
linear due to positive and negative feedback between sea ice, the ocean and atmosphere.
Already today, due to the increase of the GHG concentration in the atmosphere and the amplification of global
warming in the Arctic, the impacts of climate change in the region are apparent, e.g. in the reduction in sea
ice, in changes in weather patterns and cyclones or in the melting of glaciers and permafrost. It is therefore not
surprising that models clearly predict that Artic sea ice will disappear in summer within 20 or 30 years, yielding
new opportunities and risks for human activities in the Arctic.
This climatic evolution is going to have strong impacts on both marine ecosystems and human activities in the
Arctic. This in turn has large socio-economic implications for Europe. ACCESS will evaluate climatic impacts
in the Arctic on marine transportation (including tourism), fisheries, marine mammals and the extraction of
hydrocarbons for the next 20 years; with particular attention to environmental sensitivities and sustainability.
These meso-economic issues will be extended to the macro-economic scale in order to highlight trans-sectoral
implications and provide an integrated assessment of the socio-economic impact of climate change. An important
aspect of ACCESS, given the geostrategic implication of Arctic state changes, will be the consideration of Arctic
governance issues, including the framework UNCLOS (United Nations Convention for the Law of the Sea).
ACCESS dedicates a full work package to integrate Arctic climate changes, socioeconomic impacts and Arctic
governance issues.

In ACCESS OASys works on the development of quantitative network design, developing schemes
on how to set up efficient observational networks needed for better forecasts in Marine transportation and in oil
and gas exploration activities. This work will contribute to WP1, 2 and 4.

In addition OASys provides Michael as the assistant co-ordinator of the project.