Frank Kauker, Rüdiger Gerdes, Michael Karcher, Cornelia Köberle, and Jan L Lieser (2003)
Variability of Arctic and North Atlantic sea ice: A combined analysis of model results and observations from 1978 to 2001
J. Geophys. Res. 108(C6).
Ice cover data simulated by a coupled sea ice-ocean model of the North
Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean are compared with satellite observations
for the period 1978–2001. The capability of the model in reproducing
the long-term mean state and the interseasonal variability is demonstrated.
The main modes of variability of the satellite data and the simulation
in the summer and winter half years are highly similar. Using NCEP/NCAR
reanalysis data and the results from the sea ice-ocean model, we
describe the relationship with atmospheric and oceanic variables
for the first two modes of sea ice concentration variability in winter
and in summer. The first winter mode shows a time-delayed response
to the Arctic Oscillation due to advection of heat anomalies in the
ocean. The second winter mode is dominated by an event in the late
1990s that is characterized by anomalously high pressure over the
eastern Arctic. The first summer mode is strongly influenced by the
Arctic Oscillation of the previous winter. The second summer mode
is caused by anomalous air temperature in the Arctic. This mode shows
a distinctive trend and is related to an ice extent reduction of
about 4 · 105 km2 over the 23 years of analysis.