W Dorn, K Dethloff, A Rinke, S Frickenhaus, R Gerdes, M Karcher, and F Kauker (2007)
Sensitivities and uncertainties in a coupled regional atmosphere-ocean-ice model with respect to the simulation of Arctic sea ice
Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 112(D10).
[1] A series of sensitivity experiments using a coupled regional
atmosphere-ocean-ice model of the Arctic has been conducted in order
to identify the requirements needed to reproduce observed sea-ice
conditions and to address uncertainties in the description of Arctic
processes. The ability of the coupled model to reproduce observed
summer ice retreat depends largely on a quasi-realistic ice volume
at the beginning of the melting period, determined by the relationship
between winter growth and summer decay of ice. While summer ice decay
is strongly affected by the parameterization of the sea-ice albedo,
winter ice growth depends significantly on the parameterization of
lateral freezing. Reciprocal model biases due to uncertainties in
the atmospheric energy fluxes can be compensated to a certain extent.
However, potential underlying weaknesses of the model cannot be eliminated
that way. Since lateral freezing also determines the ice concentration
during winter, and thus the heat loss of the ocean and the near-surface
air temperature, the model tuning possibilities are limited. A large
uncertainty in the model relates to the simulation of long-wave radiation
most likely as a result of overestimated cloud cover. The results
suggest that uncertainties in the descriptions for Arctic clouds,
snow, and sea-ice albedo, and lateral freezing and melting of sea
ice, including the treatment of snow, are responsible for large deviations
in the simulation of Arctic sea ice in coupled models. Improved descriptions
of these processes are needed to reduce model biases and to enhance
the credibility of future climate change projections.